I love the Blue Raiders tonight despite being under dogs as I think they match up very well with Arkansas pass happy team. MTSU is 35th in the league in pass defense and that's facing an average 60th attack so they have been tested and have passed particularly against two common opponents in ULLAF and ULMON who they both waxed as they controlled the game of two top 50 passing attacks. I look for MTSU to get this done with their conference leading pass rush. Jamari Lattimore might be the Sun Belt defensive player of the year with 8.5 sacks he's tied for third in the nation. MTSU also should be able to do a lot on offense as this may be the worst defense they have faced all year ranked 116th and can't seem to do anything well.
Many will say it's because they have faced a tough schedule with offensive teams like Louisville Indiana and Auburn on the schedule, but I still think Middle Tenn who can run and pass the ball with a dual threat QB as good as any in Dwight Dasher on the roster will give ARkansas State all sorts of problem. MTSU leads this series 9-2 and if they want to continue that they can't turn the ball over. That's something Dasher has done too often, but against a team that really doesn't force many turnovers except in their last game vs. Florida Atlantic (105th in total offense). This stat is over rated for MTSU they led their conference and were among the national leaders in turnover margin now they are one of the worst. Dasher has been inconsistent and when they got waxed last time on national TV vs. Troy he had gotten hurt and came back and that was his first game back after suspension. I think he redeems himself big time tonight against a bad defense and he gets the spot light win. QB Ryan Alpin is part of a one dimensional offense and has to face another team that can get to the QB and has a pass defense. Last week against Florida Atlantic who has a solid pass defense ranked 23rd similar to what MTSU offers they struggled through the first 3 quarters before scoring 28 in the final quarter. That won't happen this week against a MTSU defense that is fighting for bowl eligibility and possibly a split of the conference crown!
